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junker-town · 7 years ago

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A MAC team survived a coaching change! Now what for WMU?

Tim Lester’s Broncos finished .500 regardless. Can they move back up the standings with experience and good health?

It could have been worse in Kalamazoo. Much worse.

After Ball State went 12-2 in 2008, the Cardinals replaced Brady Hoke with Stan Parrish and went 6-18 over the next two seasons.

After Buffalo went 8-6 and upset Ball State in the MAC title game in 2008, the Bulls replaced Turner Gill with Jeff Quinn and went 9-27 over the next three seasons.

After CMU went 12-2 and won the MAC in 2009, the Chippewas replaced Butch Jones with Dan Enos, who went 6-18 in his first two years.

After Miami (Ohio) went 10-4 and won the MAC in 2010, the RedHawks replaced Mike Haywood with Don Treadwell. They haven’t finished with a winning record since.

After Kent State went 11-3 and barely missed an Orange Bowl bid in 2012, the Golden Flashes replaced Darrell Hazell with Paul Haynes and haven’t gone better than 4-8 since.

After BGSU went 10-4 and won the MAC in 2015, the Falcons replaced Dino Babers with Mike Jinks and have gone 6-18 since.

The collapse is as reliable a part of the MAC life cycle as the surge. You make a good hire, you float to the top of this parity haven, and you lose your head coach and regress harshly.

There are exceptions. Ohio bucked the trend by hiring an aging Frank Solich, who is entering his 14th year without threat of moving to a different job. Toledo and NIU bucked the trend by simply being better and more well-organized — and therefore replacing a good coach with another good coach — than most of the conference.

And as it turns out, WMU might be in the immunity group with its top two division rivals.

There was no way that WMU was going to avoid a significant drop-off in 2017. The Broncos lost P.J. Fleck to Minnesota after the charismatic boat-rower led them to a 13-1 record, MAC title, and Cotton Bowl bid in 2016. Former WMU quarterback Tim Lester took over at his alma mater at the most thankless time imaginable.

Lester was tasked with keeping the boat afloat despite losing quarterback Zach Terrell, his top three receivers (including all-world Corey Davis), and the team’s best offensive tackle (Taylor Moton), pass rusher (Keion Adams), and safety (Justin Tranquill, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second game), and even a solid place-kicker (Butch Hampton). There were still plenty of strong pieces leftover from Fleck’s better-than-a-MAC-team-should-expect recruiting, but regression was on its way.

The Broncos began the year with semi-competitive losses to USC (49-31) and Michigan State (28-14), won five of the next six (including a legendary seven-OT game at Buffalo), then lost three of four without injured quarterback Jon Wassink, dropping games to each primary MAC West rival — CMU (35-28), NIU (35-31), and Toledo (37-10).

WMU both averaged and allowed 27.3 points per game and finished 6-6, reaching bowl eligibility for the fourth straight year but scoring no bowl bid.

The finish was disappointing, but Lester got a passing grade. Then he signed what was, per the 247Sports Composite, the second-best recruiting class in the MAC. He’ll bring in 19 more three-star recruits, and he’ll bring back most of the pieces of that rebuilt passing game, plus veteran running back Jamauri Bogan, 74 career offensive line starts, a now-healthy Tranquill, and quite a few other athletic defenders.

The worst might be over, and comparatively speaking, it really wasn’t all that bad.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Tim Lester

Offense

When Texas Tech hired WMU offensive coordinator Kevin Johns away from WMU in late-January, Lester promoted line coach and co-coordinator Jake Moreland. A former WMU tight end, Moreland has coached at nearly every level, from Elmhurst and Saint Joseph’s (Indiana) to WMU, Air Force, Syracuse, Air Force again, and WMU again.

Among Moreland’s first tasks: finding the Broncos’ big-play ability after it left Kalamazoo with Corey Davis and Carrington Thompson, who combined to catch 139 passes at 15.4 yards per catch in 2016.

D’Wayne Eskridge took over as the No. 1 receiver and averaged nearly 17 yards per catch, but he was extremely inefficient, and the next three receivers on the list (slot Keishawn Watson, tight end Donnie Ernsberger, and X-receiver Anton Curtis) were semi-efficient but averaged a paltry 10.5 per catch.

Combined with a run game that was good at not moving backwards but also didn’t pop, WMU had one of the most efficient offenses in the MAC, but one that was not generating easy points.

WMU was quite a bit higher in success rate before Wassink went down. True freshman Reece Goddard took over and struggled, completing just 45 percent of his passes with a 97.3 passer rating in his four games in charge. WMU was still competitive thanks to the run game and some rare big plays against NIU, but the 1-3 finish spoke for itself.

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Jon Wassink

Wassink was growing into himself. After struggling against USC and Michigan State, he completed 70 percent of his passes with 14 TDs to two INTs over his final six games. Everything dried up in a frustrating 14-13 loss to Akron, but WMU’s passing game was otherwise reaching cruising altitude, with Eskridge catching 16 of 27 passes for 339 yards in the five wins in that span.

With Wassink back, WMU could pick up where it left off in late-October. Quite a few then-sophomores were thrown into the fire — Wassink, Eskridge, Watson, Curtis, all-MAC guard Luke Juriga — and improved as the year progressed.

While the Broncos must replace big Jarvion Franklin and his 4,867 career rushing yards, Jamauri Bogan and LeVante Bellamy were both more efficient despite smaller stature, and Bellamy (8.0 yards per carry before missing the final five games with injury) might have some much-needed explosiveness, too. And at 235 pounds, former star recruit Matt Falcon could bring some heft if he can stay healthy.

The injury bug bit virtually everybody in the backfield but Franklin last year, to the point where slot receiver Ra’Sean Davie was taking backup reps. Franklin was able to paper over these issues, but he’s gone, and this smaller group must stay upright. If it does, the talent’s obvious. And while All-American left tackle Chukwuma Okorafor is gone, the rest of the line returns intact, including Juriga and fellow all-conference center John Keenoy. This will still be one of the best lines in the MAC.

Then there’s the new batch of newcomers.

Sophomore receivers Tyron Arnett and Luke Sanders, both former three-star recruits, combined to catch 16 passes for 250 yards, mostly late in the season. Another three-star soph, Hunter Broersma, has plenty of time, too.

Michigan grad transfer and former blue-chipper Drake Harris joins the mix after bouncing between WR and DB in Ann Arbor. The 6’4 senior has just nine career catches but brings obvious athleticism.

Wow, did Lester sign some exciting freshmen on offense. Mid-three-star QBs Kaleb Eleby and Wyatt Rector will have to wait their turn, but there are other mid-threes in running back Chase Brown, receiver DaShon Bussell, tight end Anthony Torres, and tackle A.J. Reed (a nearly-four-star).

WMU’s got more offensive upside than any MAC school this side of Toledo. And it’s still a young enough unit that, whatever the Broncos figure out in 2018, they’ll probably improve upon in 2019.

Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Jamauri Bogan

Defense

Between injury and turnover, WMU’s offense was guaranteed to regress. The defense, however, improved slightly, from 69th to 62nd in Def. S&P+, in Tim Daoust’s first year.

Daoust was in charge of some of Scott Shafer’s most aggressive fronts at Syracuse early in the decade, and he quickly got his thumbprint on this defense: the Broncos ranked 36th in overall havoc rate (23rd in LB havoc) and 22nd in stuff rate. They didn’t have much of a pass rush, but they still created lots of third-and-longs. And if their secondary hadn’t been a M*A*S*H unit, they might have taken better advantage of those awkward downs and distances. As it stood, they still weren’t too bad at it.

The DBs were as banged up as the RBs in 2017. Tranquill missed most of 11 games, and WMU’s eight other regulars in the back combined to miss 17 games. Only one of the eight (corner Darius Phillips) played in all 12.

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Tranquill

With that level of discontinuity, it’s a wonder that WMU’s defense still improved from 74th to 44th in Passing S&P+. And it makes you wonder what the Broncos might be capable of with Tranquill back and, in theory, less week-to-week turnover.

Losing Phillips will hurt, but that’s almost it. Corners Sam Beal and Obbie Jackson are back after combining for three tackles for loss and 17 passes defensed (mostly from Beal), and WMU now has three exciting junior safeties in Tranquill and 2017 starters Davontae Ginwright (who missed four games himself) and Stefan Claiborne.

The secondary will need to stabilize, because the front seven’s been thinned out, losing four of its top seven linemen and each of the top three linebackers.

Fleck and Lester have recruited well here in recent years, but a lot of the more impressive recruits are super young. The return of ends Antonio Balabani, Ali Fayad, and Eric Assoua (combined: 18.5 TFLs, 8.5 sacks) is semi-encouraging, but this pass rush was pretty shaky. And while linebackers Alex Grace, Drake Spears, and Treshaun Hayward made a few plays in backup minutes, they have a lot of production to replace. Departed backers Robert Spillane and Caleb Bailey each took part in at least 13 run stuffs.

Photo by David Banks/Getty Images

Sam Beal (18)

Special Teams

That WMU basically stayed the same in special teams — 47th in Special Teams S&P+ in 2016, 53rd in 2017 — was a minor victory. Freshman Josh Grant took over place-kicking duties and had some freshman moments (just 7-for-11 on FGs under 40 yards) but showed upside as well (4-for-7 over 40).

Grant’s return is encouraging, but WMU now has to replace one of its best ever return men in Phillips, who scored six career return touchdowns and helped WMU rank fourth in kick return efficiency last year.

2018 outlook

2018 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug Syracuse 71 -0.7 48% 8-Sep at Michigan 10 -24.6 8% 15-Sep Delaware State NR 42.1 99% 22-Sep at Georgia State 113 4.9 61% 29-Sep at Miami (Ohio) 82 -4.2 40% 6-Oct Eastern Michigan 96 4.9 61% 13-Oct at Bowling Green 97 0.1 50% 20-Oct at Central Michigan 116 5.6 63% 25-Oct Toledo 49 -5.2 38% 1-Nov Ohio 68 -1.4 47% 13-Nov at Ball State 117 5.7 63% 20-Nov Northern Illinois 69 -1.2 47%

Projected S&P+ Rk 87 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 86 / 87 Projected wins 6.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -0.6 (72) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 78 / 72 2017 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 8 / 7.2 2017 TO Luck/Game +0.3 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 63% (76%, 50%) 2017 Second-order wins (difference) 5.9 (0.1)

Thanks to the turnover in the front seven, WMU ranks only 105th in returning production, which drove a conservative S&P+ projection of 87th overall.

The Broncos’ 2018 fate could be decided by how quickly some recent star recruits can develop. If the defense can avoid too much of a drop-off, I’m confident the offense will overachieve its No. 86 projection. That could flip a lot of games.

WMU’s schedule is damn fascinating. There’s one likely loss (at Michigan), one likely win (Delaware State), and 10 games projected between 38 and 63 percent win probability. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that many.

Nearly every game on the schedule is projected within a touchdown, which means that things like injury, place-kicking, and/or a random sophomore developing quickly could make the difference between about 4-8 and 8-4.

My own prediction: this team will continue to thwart the typical MAC life cycle and remain in the top half of the conference. There’s too much raw talent not to. And with almost every potential 2018 difference-maker returning in 2019, the Broncos are still in good shape moving forward.

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

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shanghai-glam-blog · 7 years ago

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dmbreport-blog · 6 years ago

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Bogan, Bellamy help lead W. Mich. to win over Georgia St.

ATLANTA (AP) — Jamauri Bogan and LeVante Bellamy combined for almost 250 yards rushing as Western Michigan rolled over Georgia State 34-15 on Saturday afternoon.

Bogan carried 15 times, racking up 126 yards and one touchdown. Bellamy had 21 carries for 121 yards. Jayden Reed pulled in seven passes for 101 yards and a score. Jon Wassink threw for 234 yards and three TDs for Western Michigan (2-2).

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primascriptura · 6 years ago

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Jamauri Bogan and LeVante Bellamy combined for almost 250 yards rushing as Western Michigan rolled over Georgia State 34-15 on Saturday afternoon

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hottytoddynews · 7 years ago

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Javon Patterson & Eli Johnson during spring practice. Photo by Steven Gagliano

Ole Miss junior offensive lineman Javon Patterson is an active volunteer in the Oxford/Lafayette County community. On Tuesday, he was recognized for his service, earning one of 108 spots on the 2017 Wuerffel Trophy watch list.

The Wuerffel Trophy, known as “College Football’s Premier Award for Community Service,” is presented annually by the All Sports Association in Fort Walton Beach, Florida. Named after 1996 Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Danny Wuerffel from the University of Florida, the Wuerffel Trophy is awarded to the FBS player that best combines exemplary community service with athletic and academic achievement.

Patterson, who is also a nominee for the Allstate AFCA Good Works Team, has mentored children with the Marks Project and Reading with the Rebels programs, has helped local families with meals at holiday time, visited patients in hospitals, assisted with flood relief in Baton Rouge and South Carolina, and volunteered with a blood drive and a “Caps for Kids” program. The marketing major from Petal, Mississippi, has also been a member of the NCAA Division I Football Recruiting Ad Hoc Working Group.

On the field, Patterson has been a valuable starter in the interior of the offensive line during his first two seasons in the Red and Blue. He was the only Rebel lineman to start every game last season (nine at left guard, three at center), while helping the Rebels lead the SEC in passing yards and achieve big wins over No. 11 Georgia and No. 8 Texas A&M. As a true freshman in 2015, his efforts contributed to the Rebels shattering most of the single-season offensive records and making the school’s first Sugar Bowl appearance (and win) since 1970.

Voting for the Wuerffel Trophy is performed by a National Selection Committee that includes college football television and print media, industry notables, former head coaches and prior Wuerffel Trophy recipients.

Ole Miss’ Deterrian Shackelford won the 2014 Wuerffel Trophy.

Nominations for the Wuerffel Trophy are made by the respective universities’ sports information departments and will close Oct. 13. A current list of nominees can be found at http://ift.tt/29QMOJq beginning Aug. 1. Semifinalists for the award will be announced Nov. 2, and finalists will be announced Nov. 22.

The formal announcement of the 2017 recipient will be made at the National Football Foundation’s press conference in New York City on Dec. 5.

The presentation of the 2017 Wuerffel Trophy will occur at the 49th Annual All Sports Association Awards Banquet on Feb. 16, 2018, in Fort Walton Beach, Florida.

Past winners of the Wuerffel Trophy are Rudy Niswanger (LSU-2005), Joel Penton (Ohio State-2006), Paul Smith (Tulsa-2007), Tim Tebow (Florida-2008), Tim Hiller (W. Michigan-2009), Sam Acho (Texas-2010), Barrett Jones (Alabama-2011), Matt Barkley (USC-2012), Gabe Ikard (Oklahoma-2013), Deterrian Shackelford (Ole Miss-2014), Ty Darlington (Oklahoma-2015) and Trevor Knight (Texas A&M-2016).

The Wuerffel Trophy is a member of the National College Football Awards Association (NCFAA) which encompasses the most prestigious awards in college football. The 23 awards boast more than 800 years of tradition-selection excellence. Visit www.NCFAA.org to learn more.

2017 WUERFFEL TROPHY PRESEASON WATCH LIST (LISTED ALPHABETICALLY BY UNIVERSITY)

A.J. Coney, Akron, Senior, WR

Zach Guiser, Akron, Senior, DB

Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama, Junior, DB

Taylor Lamb, Appalachian State, Senior, QB

Jacob Alsadek, Arizona, Senior, OL

Tashon Smallwood, Arizona State, Senior, DL

Frank Ragnow, Arkansas, Senior, OL

Blaise Taylor, Arkansas State, Senior, DB/ST

Daniel Carlson, Auburn, Senior, PK

Vinnie Palazeti, Ball State, Senior, OL

Taylor Young, Baylor, Senior, LB

Brett Rypien, Boise State, Junior, QB

Fred Warner, BYU, Senior, LB

Raymond Davison, California, Senior, DL

Joe Ostman, Central Michigan, Senior, DL

Christian Wilkins, Clemson, Junior, DL

Derek McCartney, Colorado, Senior, LB

Zack Golditch, Colorado State, Senior, OL

Gabe Brandner, Duke, Senior, OL

Davon Grayson, East Carolina, Senior, WR

Jeremiah Harris, Eastern Michigan, Junior, DL

T.J. McCoy, Florida, Sophomore, OL

Devin Singletary, Florida Atlantic, Sophomore, RB

Alec Eberle, Florida State, Junior, OL

Jeb Blazevich, Georgia, Senior, TE

Aaron Davis, Georgia, Senior, DB

KeShun Freeman, Georgia Tech, Senior, DL

Noah Borden, Hawaii, Junior, LS/ST

Steven Dunbar, Houston, Senior, WR

Rashard Fant, Indiana, Senior, DB

Kayden Elliss, Idaho, Junior, LB

Josey Jewell, Iowa, Senior, LB

Joe Campos, Iowa State, Senior, OL

Joe Dineen, Jr., Kansas, Junior, LB

Dalton Risner, Kansas State, Junior, OL

Matt Bahr, Kent State, Junior, LB

Courtney Love, Kentucky, Senior, LB

Grant Horst, Louisiana, Senior, OL

Lamar Jackson, Louisville, Junior, QB

Danny Etling, LSU, Senior, QB

Ryan Yurachek, Marshall, Senior, TE

Adam Greene, Maryland, Senior, PK

Spencer Smith, Memphis, Senior, P

Demetrius Jackson, Miami, Junior, DL

Shaquille Quaterman, Miami, Sophomore, LB

James Gardner, Miami (Ohio), Junior, WR

Brent Stockstill, Middle Tennessee, Sophomore, QB

Ryan Santoso, Minnesota, Senior P

Gabe Myles, Mississippi State, Senior, WR

Corey Fatony, Missouri, Junior, P

Andrew Wood, Navy, Junior, OL

Drew Brown, Nebraska, Senior, PK

Austin Corbett, Nevada, Senior, OL

Austin Proehl, North Carolina, Senior, WR

A.J. Cole III, North Carolina State, Junior, P

Andy Flusche, North Texas, Senior, DL

Max Scharping, Northern Illinios, Junior, OL

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, Senior, RB

Tyler Newsome, Notre Dame, Senior, P

Drue Tranquill, Notre Dame, Senior, DB

Nic Weishar, Notre Dame, Senior, TE

Tracy Sprinkle, Ohio State, Senior, DL

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State, Senior, QB

Josh Marriner, Old Dominion, Senior, RB

Javon Patterson, Ole Miss, Junior, OL

Juwaan Williams, Oregon, Senior, DB

Marcus McMarion, Oregon State, Junior, QB

Trace McSorley, Penn State, Junior, QB

Brian O’Neill, Pitt, Junior, OL

David Blough, Purdue, Junior, QB

David Wells, San Diego State, Senior, TE

Nate Velichko, San Jose State, Senior, OL

Justin Lawler, SMU, Senior, DL

Tre Alford, South Alabama, Senior, DL

Antoine Wilder, South Carolina, Sophomore, LB

Harrison Phillips, Stanford, Senior, DL

Zack Mahoney, Syracuse, Senior, QB

Keith Kirkwood, Temple, Senior, WR

Todd Kelly, Jr., Tennessee, Senior, DB

Koda Martin, Texas A&M, Junior, OL

Gabe Schrade, Texas State, Senior, TE

Gabe Lloyd, Texas State, Senior, LB

James Sherman, Texas State, Junior, PK/P

Tyler Watts, Texas State, Junior, WR

Tryston Mizerak, Texas State, Senior, OL

Cody Thompson, Toledo, Senior, WR

Seth Calloway, Troy, Senior, DL

Parry Nickerson, Tulane, Senior, DB

Willie Wright, Tulsa, Junior, OL

Shaquem Griffin, UCF, Senior, LB

Kenny Young, UCLA, Senior, LB

Folorunso Fatukasi, UConn, Senior, DL

Adam Breneman, UMass, Senior, TE

Nico Falah, USC, Senior, OL

Auggie Sanchez, USF, Senior, LB

Chase Hansen, Utah, Junior, DB

Dallin Leavitt, Utah State, Senior, DB

Ryan Mata, UTEP, Junior, QB

Marcus Davenport, UTSA, Senior, DL

Tommy Openshaw, Vanderbilt, Senior, PK

Quin Blanding, Virginia, Senior, DB

Joey Slye, Virginia Tech, Senior, RB

Wendall Dunn, Wake Forest, Senior, DL

Azeem Victor, Washington, Senior, LB

Peyton Pelluer, Washington State, Senior, LB

Rob Dowdy, West Virginia, Sophomore, OL

Mike White, Western Kentucky, Senior, QB

Jamauri Bogan, Western Michigan, Junior, RB

Follow Ole Miss Football on Twitter (@OleMissFB), Facebook and Instagram. For more information, visit http://ift.tt/16ouVLF.

Courtesy of Ole Miss Sports

The post Javon Patterson Makes Wuerffel Trophy Watch List appeared first on HottyToddy.com.

#hottytoddy #olemiss #oxfordms #oxford ms #mississippi #university of mississippi #the grove

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dmbreport-blog · 7 years ago

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Wassink, Western Michigan dominate FCS Wagner 49-14

KALAMAZOO, Mich. (AP) — Jon Wassink threw a career-high three touchdown passes, Jamauri Bogan and Jarvi Franklin both ran for more than 100 yards and Western Michigan rolled to a 49-14 win over Wagner on Saturday night. Wassinik completed his first nine passes, hitting Keishaw Watson for a pair of touchdowns, and finished 11 of 12 for 165 yards. He hit Mitch Heimbuch for an 11-yard touchdown pass…

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primascriptura · 7 years ago

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KALAMAZOO, Mich. (AP) Jon Wassink threw a career-high three touchdown passes, Jamauri Bogan and Jarvi Franklin both ran for more than 100 yards and Western Michigan rolled to a 49-14 win over Wagner on Saturday night.

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junker-town · 7 years ago

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WMU will regress after losing P.J. Fleck, but the 2017 Broncos are still dangerous

This team will still be a MAC contender under another interesting head coach.

This preview originally published March 29 and has since been updated.

It is a fact of life in the MAC. The better you do, the faster you are looking for a new coach. You just hope to claim as many prizes as possible before he leaves.

Northern Illinois pulled this off a few years ago. The Huskies, two years removed from losing Jerry Kill to Minnesota, claimed an Orange Bowl berth before losing Dave Doeren to NC State. Bowling Green at least got conference titles out of Doeren (2013) and Dino Babers (2015) before losing them to Wake Forest and Syracuse, respectively.

Others have fallen short. Toledo has mastered playing like an elite MAC team without winning the MAC; the Rockets lost Tim Beckman to Illinois and Matt Campbell to Iowa State and got not even a division title to show for it. Ball State got a 12-0 start out of Brady Hoke but got upset in the MAC Championship and lost Hoke to San Diego State.

Western Michigan got its money’s worth when it hired a 32-year-old former Rutgers receivers coach in 2013. P.J. Fleck recruited circles around the rest of the conference and got his PhD in catchphrases.

He stripped the house to the studs in a 1-11 Year Zero reset, but after two slightly unsatisfying 8-5 seasons, his Broncos broke through in 2016, and he was still around to lead it.

WMU went 9-0 against the MAC and 2-1 against the Big Ten in 2016. The Broncos knocked off Northwestern and Illinois on the road early, trounced Georgia Southern in what was supposed to be a mid-major showcase, and then laid waste to conference foes: 49-10 over CMU, 41-0 over Akron, 52-20 over Ball State, 38-0 over Buffalo, 55-35 over Toledo.

With “Fleck to [Insert P5 School]?” rumors taking up more and more oxygen, the Broncos remained focused and welcomed ESPN College GameDay to Kalamazoo. (The signs were good, too.) Their reward: a trip to the Cotton Bowl and a competitive loss to Wisconsin.

Fleck left. That’s what happens. He’s at Minnesota, though from an WMU perspective, all that matters is what’s next.

After taking a flyer on a relative unknown last time, the school elected to go with a familiar face. At least, to WMU fans.

Lester threw for more than 11,000 yards in a Western Michigan uniform in the late-1990s and was inducted into the WMU athletics hall of fame. He played in both the XFL and Arena League, and after an unconventional playing career, he followed an even more unique coaching path:

2000-01: high school offensive coordinator

2002-03: Division III offensive coordinator (Elmhurst)

2004: Division II head coach (he went 7-4 at Saint Joseph’s)

2005-06: WMU quarterbacks coach

2007: Division III defensive coordinator (North Central)

2008-12: Division III head coach (33-19 at Elmhurst with a quarterfinal appearance)

2013-15: Syracuse quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator

2016: Purdue quarterbacks coach

Technically, WMU hired a former pro quarterback with six years of head coaching experience. But all of this experience happened on state roads instead of the interstate, so to speak.

If Lester’s up for this — and the fact that he had one losing season in six years at Saint Joseph’s and Elmhurst suggests he very well might be — then Fleck left plenty of toys in the toy box. The passing game has to be rebuilt following the loss of quarterback Zach Terrell and his top three receivers (including the incredible Corey Davis), but the run game could be dominant, and most of the defense returns.

So now we wait. Can Lester parlay D3 success into wins at a higher level? And if he does, will his hometown status lead to him staying a bit longer than the typical MAC coach?

(My guesses: 1. Yes, but not “13-1” level success. 2. No, probably not.)

2016 in review

2016 WMU statistical profile.

After a No. 53 S&P+ ranking in 2015, WMU headed into last fall with high expectations due to the combination of high-caliber recruiting and most of a potent offense returning. Still, it took both S&P+ and Vegas a little while to figure out just how impressive the Broncos were. You could make some money picking WMU early in the year.

Eventually, the markets adjusted. WMU improved (offensively, at least) as the season progressed, but both S&P+ and Vegas caught on. And after the big win over Toledo clinched an unbeaten regular season, the Broncos slipped a hair in the postseason. The Broncos still weren’t bad, but there was regression.

First 7 games (7-0) — Avg. percentile performance: 63% (~top 50) | Avg. yards per play: WMU 6.6, Opp 5.5 (plus-1.1) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-20.7 PPG

Next 5 games (5-0) — Avg. percentile performance: 68% (~top 40) | Avg. yards per play: WMU 7.3, Opp 6.3 (plus-1.0) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-5.2 PPG

Last 2 games (1-1) — Avg. percentile performance: 53% (~top 60) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.8, WMU 5.1 (minus-0.7) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-5.2 PPG

WMU was steady, peaking a couple of times (at CMU and at Akron) but mostly establishing residence in around the 60th and 70th percentiles.

For all the talk about Fleck’s strange motivational techniques, they worked. WMU was one of the most consistent teams in FBS. Now we’ll see if Lester can row the boat.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Give Tom Flacco, Joe’s brother, this: he’s mastered small sample sizes. In 2015, backing up star Zach Terrell, he completed 10 of 12 passes for 188 yards and a touchdown (passer rating: 242.4) and rushed 28 times for 266 yards (9.5 per carry) and two scores.

Keep that up over a full season, and you’ll win the Heisman!

He won’t keep that up, obviously. But the younger brother of (much taller) Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe offered at least a few hints that there might be life after Terrell. Granted, Flacco will have to hold off three-star sophomore Jon Wassink, but one can assume decent quarterback play. [Update: Actually, Flacco has transferred to Rutgers.]

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Tom Flacco

So that’s one concern WMU probably won’t have. Now Flacco/Wassink just need some players to catch their passes. In Corey Davis, Michael Henry, and Carrington Thompson, WMU must replace a trio responsible for 79 percent of last year’s targets. Only one returning wideout (sophomore slot D’Wayne Eskridge) caught more than 10 passes last year. Eskridge is an exciting efficiency option, running backs Jarvion Franklin and Jamauri Bogan combined to catch 30 of 33 passes, and tight end Donnie Ernsberger caught nine of 12. There might be a decent possession passing game in this bunch.

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Jamauri Bogan

But who’s running routes downfield? There are plenty of former three-star recruits in the mix — sophomore Anton Curtis, redshirt freshmen Hunter Broersma and Rodney Graves, freshmen Luke Sanders and Tyron Arnett — but they have combined for zero career catches.

Luckily, new coordinator Kevin Johns will have a run game, and his history suggests he might know how to use it. In 2015, the Indiana coordinator had to replace his starting quarterback, running back, and three leading receivers. But with an emphasis on the run game and a rather extreme tempo, the Hoosiers improved from 63rd to 15th in Off. S&P+. Indiana ran slightly more than the national average on standard downs and quite a bit more than normal on passing downs, and they crafted an identity around power and pace.

Granted, a lot of gains came undone in 2016, when Indiana threw more and fell back to 67th in Off. S&P+. Still, Johns inherits not only Franklin (3,639 rushing yards in three years) and Bogan (1,974 in two), but also sophomore Davon Tucker, juniors LaVonte Bellamy and Leo Ekwoge, and redshirt freshman Matt Falcon, a one-time Michigan commit still working back from multiple knee injuries. And while the line does have to replace all-conference tackle Taylor Moton and two-year starting guard Jackson Day, two other all-conference linemen return (tackle Chukwuma Okorafor, center John Keenoy).

WMU’s offense was built around relentless efficiency; Davis and Thompson averaged 15.4 yards per catch, but this was otherwise an attack that pushed you around a few yards at a time.

Efficiency is good, but big plays allow you score without executing well for eight to 10 plays in a row. WMU’s 2016 offense was experienced enough to attack consistently and had a big-play option in Davis. The 2017 offense won’t be that lucky. A lack of big plays could result in duds, even if the run game is mostly awesome.

Defense

It only took Fleck until his second season to start getting the offense figured out. WMU improved from 121st in Off. S&P+ his first year to 42nd, 22nd, and 25th, respectively, over his final three years.

The defense, however, took longer. WMU ranked 93rd in Def. S&P+ in 2015, and while there was clear, definitive improvement last year despite turnover, the Broncos were still only 69th.

WMU was reasonably efficient on standard downs (37th in standard downs success rate) but played pretty passive, inefficient ball on passing downs; the Broncos’ sack rate was actually higher on standard downs (6.2 percent) than passing downs (5.3 percent), which isn’t supposed to happen. That resulted in quite a few second- or third-and-long bailouts.

If anything, under new coordinator Tim Daoust, we might be looking at the opposite problem.

A colleague of Lester’s at Syracuse, Daoust runs the type of defense that Lester hated facing as a quarterback.

The attack 4-3 defense quickly came to mind as it prompts defenders to attack the offense then react to changes as they occur instead of trying to read what an offense is doing before attacking.

The system, Lester said, is frustrating to throwing quarterbacks as they need to wait to read the defense after the play has started.

"When you're designing what you want your defense to look like as a head coach, you pretty much pick the defense you hated to go against the most and you say 'that's what I want to run,'" Lester said.

I always love that attitude — play the defense you hated to face.

An aggressive, confusing defense tends to pair well with an up-tempo offense in that it can force quick-change situations, wear opponents out, and create those deadly touchdown-turnover-touchdown situations that can turn a close game into a laugher.

Of course, if you aren’t good at the up-tempo offense or the aggressive defense, you’re creating identical disadvantages for yourself. We’ll see if the offense can play efficient ball, but I have fewer concerns about the defense. It could take pretty well to an aggressive approach.

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Asantay Brown

WMU does have to replace its two most disruptive defenders in the front seven; rush end Keion Adams and weakside linebacker Robert Spillane combined for 28.5 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, five passes defensed, and five forced fumbles. They were a two-man havoc rate.

Still, ends Eric Assoua and Nathan Braster combined for 13.5 TFLs of their own, and linebackers Asantay Brown and Caleb Bailey combined for 17.5. It appears there’s plenty of attacking talent to go around, and that’s before mentioning the five three-star linebackers moving to Kalamazoo this fall.

There might be concern at tackle; WMU really only played two of them with regularity last year, and one (David Curle) is gone. Braster is big enough to move inside at times, and senior Andre Turner is back, but WMU will be relying on some green players on the interior.

If the run defense holds up, though, I like the odds of the pass defense improving. Corners Sam Beal, Darius Phillips, and Obbie Jackson combined for five interceptions and 21 breakups last year, and three-star youngsters like Dontre Boyd, Emmanuel Jackson, or K.J. Anderson could be ready to help sooner than later. The safety position is a bit more of an unknown with the loss of Justin Ferguson, but he missed four games last year, and sophomore Davontae Ginwright got his feet wet in his absence. Former star recruit Justin Tranquill, meanwhile, more than held his own as a freshman and is taking on a leadership role as a sophomore.

If the Broncos can force opponents to pass, the combination of Daoust’s aggression, a decent pass rush, and a better secondary could take advantage.

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Darius Phillips

Special Teams

WMU has a couple of legs to replace. Punter James Coleman, who ranked 11th in punt success rate and allowed opponents to return just six punts all year, graduated. Meanwhile, after a sturdy freshman year as a place-kicker, sophomore-to-be Butch Hampton left Kalamazoo to pursue a soccer career. That’s quite a special teams reset.

Meanwhile, WMU’s return units were all-or-nothing in 2016 — Darius Phillips scored on a punt return and a kick return, but the Broncos ranks just 95th in kick return success rate and 58th on punts — and should continue to be so this fall.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep at USC 7 -26.6 6% 9-Sep at Michigan State 44 -9.7 29% 16-Sep Idaho 119 14.4 80% 23-Sep Wagner NR 22.0 90% 30-Sep Ball State 90 7.5 67% 7-Oct at Buffalo 128 15.5 82% 14-Oct Akron 122 16.0 82% 21-Oct at Eastern Michigan 96 4.1 59% 1-Nov Central Michigan 97 9.2 70% 8-Nov Kent State 123 16.0 82% 15-Nov at Northern Illinois 86 1.8 54% 24-Nov at Toledo 59 -7.9 32%

Projected S&P+ Rk 74 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 84 / 54 Projected wins 7.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 7.3 (35) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 73 / 76 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 18 / 2.9 2016 TO Luck/Game +5.4 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 46% (15%, 78%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 11.4 (1.6)

A team that reaches an all-time peak and loses its head coach is guaranteed to regress. It applies to Western Kentucky. It is not the hottest of takes to suggest that the Broncos are not going to go 13-1 in 2017.

Still, Lester has quite a bit of experience and inherits exciting pieces from Fleck. The passing game will regress, but the run game might be strong enough to lean on. The run defense might get gashed, but the pass defense could be excellent.

WMU isn’t projected as the best team in the MAC — those honors go to perpetual bridesmaid Toledo — but the Broncos are still No. 2. They’ll probably win seven or eight games and bowl for the fourth year in a row. After season-opening road trips to USC and Michigan State, they could be favored in each of the next nine games.

It’s hard to move on from one of the country’s most unique coaches. But in Lester, WMU landed someone who is uniquely experienced and extremely Western Michigan.

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junker-town · 8 years ago

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WMU will regress after losing P.J. Fleck, but the 2017 Broncos are still dangerous

This team will still be a MAC contender under another interesting head coach.

It is a fact of life in the MAC. The better you do, the faster you are looking for a new coach. You just hope to claim as many prizes as possible before he leaves.

He stripped the house to the studs in a 1-11 Year Zero reset, but after two slightly unsatisfying 8-5 seasons, his Broncos broke through in 2016, and he was still around to lead it.

Fleck left. That’s what happens. He’s at Minnesota, though from an WMU perspective, all that matters is what’s next.

After taking a flyer on a relative unknown last time, the school elected to go with a familiar face. At least, to WMU fans.

2000-01: high school offensive coordinator

2002-03: Division III offensive coordinator (Elmhurst)

2004: Division II head coach (he went 7-4 at Saint Joseph’s)

2005-06: WMU quarterbacks coach

2007: Division III defensive coordinator (North Central)

2008-12: Division III head coach (33-19 at Elmhurst with a quarterfinal appearance)

2013-15: Syracuse quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator

2016: Purdue quarterbacks coach

Technically, WMU hired a former pro quarterback with six years of head coaching experience. But all of this experience happened on state roads instead of the interstate, so to speak.

So now we wait. Can Lester parlay D3 success into wins at a higher level? And if he does, will his hometown status lead to him staying a bit longer than the typical MAC coach?

(My guesses: 1. Yes, but not “13-1” level success. 2. No, probably not.)

2016 in review

2016 WMU statistical profile.

First 7 games (7-0) — Avg. percentile performance: 63% (~top 50) | Avg. yards per play: WMU 6.6, Opp 5.5 (plus-1.1) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-20.7 PPG

Next 5 games (5-0) — Avg. percentile performance: 68% (~top 40) | Avg. yards per play: WMU 7.3, Opp 6.3 (plus-1.0) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-5.2 PPG

Last 2 games (1-1) — Avg. percentile performance: 53% (~top 60) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.8, WMU 5.1 (minus-0.7) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-5.2 PPG

WMU was steady, peaking a couple of times (at CMU and at Akron) but mostly establishing residence in around the 60th and 70th percentiles.

For all the talk about Fleck’s strange motivational techniques, they worked. WMU was one of the most consistent teams in FBS. Now we’ll see if Lester can row the boat.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Give Tom Flacco this: he’s mastered small sample sizes. In 2015, backing up star Zach Terrell, he completed 10 of 12 passes for 188 yards and a touchdown (passer rating: 242.4) and rushed 28 times for 266 yards (9.5 per carry) and two scores.

Keep that up over a full season, and you’ll win the Heisman!

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Tom Flacco

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Jamauri Bogan

WMU’s offense was built around relentless efficiency; Davis and Thompson averaged 15.4 yards per catch, but this was otherwise an attack that pushed you around a few yards at a time.

Defense

The defense, however, took longer. WMU ranked 93rd in Def. S&P+ in 2015, and while there was clear, definitive improvement last year despite turnover, the Broncos were still only 69th.

If anything, under new coordinator Tim Daoust, we might be looking at the opposite problem.

A colleague of Lester’s at Syracuse, Daoust runs the type of defense that Lester hated facing as a quarterback.

The attack 4-3 defense quickly came to mind as it prompts defenders to attack the offense then react to changes as they occur instead of trying to read what an offense is doing before attacking.

The system, Lester said, is frustrating to throwing quarterbacks as they need to wait to read the defense after the play has started.

I always love that attitude — play the defense you hated to face.

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Asantay Brown

If the Broncos can force opponents to pass, the combination of Daoust’s aggression, a decent pass rush, and a better secondary could take advantage.

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Darius Phillips

Special Teams

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

It’s hard to move on from one of the country’s most unique coaches. But in Lester, WMU landed someone who is uniquely experienced and extremely Western Michigan.

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.

0 notes